Poland Military Aircraft - A Polish Air Force MIG-29 is seen at the 22nd Air Base Command in Malbork, Poland on August 27, 2021.

The Polish government has said it is willing to transfer its MiG-29 fighter jets to the US in Germany, although it was unclear whether the US or other NATO allies would support the request.

Poland Military Aircraft

Poland Military Aircraft

Poland's move will likely be part of plans to bring the jets to Ukrainian territory. But a senior US official on Tuesday described the offer as a surprise, and an attempt to meet it would be seen as an act of aggression by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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NATO countries, including Poland, Germany and the US, have repeatedly committed to the bloc's oath to treat an attack on one ally as an attack on all. But Ukraine is not part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, so the countries do not want to participate in the war after Russia took over.

Direct involvement of NATO in Ukraine would escalate the conflict and increase the fear of nuclear war. US and European officials have categorically rejected creating a no-fly zone in Ukraine because it would mean shooting down Russian planes.

Sending Polish jets to the US base in Ramstein, Germany, could be seen by Warsaw officials as a way to support Ukraine's efforts - or to shift the responsibility for doing so to the rest of NATO.

"Poland's decision reflects some of the challenges outlined in this article," Defense Ministry spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

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"The possibility of military aircraft belonging to the government of the United States of America" ​​leaving the US/NATO in Germany to the airspace that is fighting against Russia in Ukraine causes great concern for the entire NATO alliance. " said Kirby. "It's not clear to us that there is any good reason for this."

Victoria Nuland, the US political secretary, told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that she did not think the Polish announcement was compatible with Washington. When pressed on that point, he said, "Not to my knowledge, and I was in a meeting where I had to hear about it before I went in. So I think it was a strange move by the Poles." The problems associated with the exchange of US-Poland-Ukraine fighters are so numerous that Poland sending MiG-29s to Ukraine in exchange for the US sending F-16s to Warsaw is difficult, but timing, maintenance and availability of pilots. it will make it difficult.

WARSAW: The United States has confirmed that it is negotiating to supply fighter jets to Poland if Warsaw sends its aging MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, with major challenges remaining for the three-way trade to end.

Poland Military Aircraft

On a Sunday appearance on CBS, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was asked if the US would allow Poland, or any other NATO country, to send warplanes to Ukraine. In response, Blinken said, "It gets the green light. In fact, we are currently talking to our Polish friends about what we can do to meet their needs if they want Ukrainians. How can we help them find something to repay the planes they are giving to the Ukrainians?"

Polish Aviation Museum

The comments came a day after Politico reported that the U.S. is in such talks, possibly looking to Poland to get U.S. F-16s to replace the pilot. But this was not the beginning of negotiations for NATO countries to provide aircraft supplies to Ukraine, whose leadership has made it clear that they consider air control to be a matter of life and death against Russia.

Rumors of Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria sending old warplanes to Ukraine for use began circulating on the social media accounts of Ukrainian government officials and military personnel on February 27.

According to the tweets, 16 MiG-29 and 14 Su-25 Frogfoot aircraft from Bulgaria, 28 MiG-29 from Poland and 12 MiG-29 from Slovakia will be transferred to Ukraine - at the same time creating a replenished army. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also said that the transferred aircraft will operate from Polish territory, where Ukrainian pilots are already being trained.

These rumors were denied on March 1 at a press conference at the Łask Polish Air Force Base in Poland by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Polish President Andrzej Duda.

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"Gentlemen, as the Secretary General has said, we are not sending airplanes to Ukraine because this could lead to military intervention in Ukraine. We are not joining the war. NATO is not involved in this conflict. However, as I said, we are helping the Ukrainian people with humanitarian aid. However, we are not sending airplanes to Ukraine," said Duda.

These comments were also made by the Polish Armed Forces General Command on March 3, who announced that "all Polish Air Force MiG-29 aircraft remain at home. All Polish aircraft have Air Force markings. And in a statement on March 6 at Belarusian media Nexta, the Chancellor of the Polish Prime Minister said, "Unfortunately you are spreading falsehoods [about the jet]. Poland will not send its military aircraft to Ukraine and will not allow it to use its airports. We are very helpful in many other areas. "

It may be true that Poland has not decided to send fighters to Ukraine at this time and that the US is discussing the risks with Poland if Warsaw changes.

Poland Military Aircraft

It is also possible that sending fighter jets - let alone the idea of ​​using NATO bases to launch missions - would be seen by Russia as a more attractive option than sending low-cost weapons to Ukraine that NATO would use. Countries have already given . According to onet.pl, citing an unnamed high-ranking Polish official, Warsaw has already sent 100 Wimpel R-73 (AA-11 Archer) short-range missiles to Ukraine. and Javelins. Desperate defense equipment in Ukraine.

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However, the initial rumors of February 27 may not have been true. According to official sources, the Bulgarian Air Force has 15 MiG-29A and 3 MiG-29UB jets, but only a few Fulcrums are airworthy and the remaining jets can be used as a source of replacement weapons - at best. Of their 16 Su-25 Frogfoots, only half (6 Su-25K and Su-25UBK) are operational. The Slovak Air Force, meanwhile, has only 6 MiG-29AS and 1 MiG-29UBS in service, less than what is rumored to be sent to Ukraine.

Of the three, Poland appears to be the most capable of supplying ships to Ukraine. The Polish Air Force has 22 MiG-29As and 6 MiG-29UBs in its inventory. Half of these had modern flight equipment and were refurbished and updated in 2013-2014 with their airframe service life of 40 years or 4,000 flight hours and the addition of IFF Mark XIIA Mode 5 systems. Last year, Poland announced that its spare parts were sufficient to operate MiG-29s for another three to four years.

But while this seems reasonable on paper, there are real questions about the situation that need to be answered. First, it appears that Poland wants to give up the most advanced weapons before handing over the jets, mainly because of the threat of Russian fighters. How quickly this can happen - and how well the aircraft will operate once the power is depleted - is unclear.

Then there is the question of transport. Direct flights to Ukraine from Bulgaria, Poland or Slovakia may be the easiest and fastest way, but come with a high risk of being shot down by the Russians, especially if they know that such an agreement is in effect. Removing and repositioning the aircraft for landing and inspecting the aircraft after landing may be required, both of which are time-consuming and dangerous. And every group of aircraft carriers is a duck with enemy planes.

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And who will drive them? It is unclear how many Ukrainian pilots there are currently, let alone where they are and how many are being trained on the MiG-29. Also sufficient staff will be needed. Theoretically, there may be foreign pilots willing to go to Ukraine and fly these jets on behalf of the Ukrainian military, but is that enough to make a difference?

Time is the last thing. A realistic analysis of how quickly the agreement can be made, how the aircraft can be moved to a new location and how quickly they can be in the air should be considered. If the answer is months, it would not make sense for Poland to call for a possible increase in sending jets to Ukraine, even if the Ukrainians won.

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